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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly functions as a type of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your squad in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround wins the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or just the biggest upset.

But the latest field is fundamentally different. The pool of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners declining and longtime also-rans rising collectively. In an normal season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this turbulent and fun season, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right system, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his special ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet the current isn't a normal campaign!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early strong start, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

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