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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys will submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's lack of participation from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would serve as guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to forces of NATO member states operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. A key demand centers on Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” said the president, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he concluded.